Short-term risk
Price pressure: If demand recovery is weaker than expected, the price of ordinary galvanized coil may drop to the range of 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
Inventory liquidation pressure: Currently, the turnover cycle exceeds 20 days, and there is an increasing phenomenon of traders selling at low prices. Thick specifications may face the dilemma of “having a price but no market”.
Medium and long-term opportunities
Green infrastructure demand: Sichuan Province’s “14th Five-Year Plan” infrastructure investment exceeds 500 billion yuan, with the demand for weather-resistant galvanized coils and photovoltaic bracket special profiles increasing by 20% annually.
High value-added transformation: With the increasing demand for thick zinc coatings (≥120g/㎡) and high-strength steel (Q355B), the premium space may expand to 200-300 yuan/ton.
Policy-driven: The national “dual carbon” policy promotes the optimization of electric furnace steel production capacity, potentially expanding the cost advantage of local steel mills. The acceleration of the West-East Electricity Transmission Project is expected to increase the demand for steel for ultra-high voltage projects by 80,000 tons.
